Greece adopted a new feed-in tariff (FIT) in Jan-09, but only recently detailed FIT rates for roof top installations. At 0.55/kWhr the new FIT rate is generous. We do not expect a large aggregate installation contribution from Greece over the near term, but expect the market to ramp to triple digit MWp over the coming couple years. With Spain's annual cap and a dearth of lending for larger projects we expect a contraction in y/y aggregate demand in 2009. We expect markets like Greece and eastern Europe to contribute more meaningfully beginning in 2010.
The new roof top FIT rate is 0.55/kWhr (annually adjusted for inflation) and applies to roof mounted solar PV systems up to 10kWp (residential); the rate is locked in for 25 years (versus 20 years for non-roof top installations) from the time the system is commissioned (turned on). This FIT rate is scheduled to remain constant until the end of 2010 when a moderate digression schedule is expected to be adopted. Installations under this FIT do not qualify for grants that cover up to 40% of the cost of the system (which only apply to systems that cost > 100,000), and are subjected to the 19% value added tax(VAT) in Greece. To qualify for this FIT, the residence must also address hot water needs via another renewable source, such as a solar thermal heater. There is no cap tied to this FIT rule.
Under the previous incentive plan, Greece installed ~11MWp in 2008.
Considering market and administrative inefficiencies we expect the new incentive plan, including this residential FIT, to drive an installation market of ~35MWp to 40MWp in 2009, and a market of potentially >100MWp in 2010. While this is a small contribution to global demand, we anticipate that the aggregate of smaller markets such as Greece, Eastern Europe, and Korea (recently capped), for example, to drive a more meaningful contribution to installations in the coming years.
* Risks
Risks include but are not limited to: (1) rapidly changing market conditions, (2) changes to government subsidization policies, (3) the impact of many competing solar PV technologies, and (4) general economic risk.
Savvas E. Politis
Columbia University
Master of International Affairs (MIA)
International Energy Management & Policy (IEMP)
The new roof top FIT rate is 0.55/kWhr (annually adjusted for inflation) and applies to roof mounted solar PV systems up to 10kWp (residential); the rate is locked in for 25 years (versus 20 years for non-roof top installations) from the time the system is commissioned (turned on). This FIT rate is scheduled to remain constant until the end of 2010 when a moderate digression schedule is expected to be adopted. Installations under this FIT do not qualify for grants that cover up to 40% of the cost of the system (which only apply to systems that cost > 100,000), and are subjected to the 19% value added tax(VAT) in Greece. To qualify for this FIT, the residence must also address hot water needs via another renewable source, such as a solar thermal heater. There is no cap tied to this FIT rule.
Under the previous incentive plan, Greece installed ~11MWp in 2008.
Considering market and administrative inefficiencies we expect the new incentive plan, including this residential FIT, to drive an installation market of ~35MWp to 40MWp in 2009, and a market of potentially >100MWp in 2010. While this is a small contribution to global demand, we anticipate that the aggregate of smaller markets such as Greece, Eastern Europe, and Korea (recently capped), for example, to drive a more meaningful contribution to installations in the coming years.
* Risks
Risks include but are not limited to: (1) rapidly changing market conditions, (2) changes to government subsidization policies, (3) the impact of many competing solar PV technologies, and (4) general economic risk.
Savvas E. Politis
Columbia University
Master of International Affairs (MIA)
International Energy Management & Policy (IEMP)
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